The Olduvai Theory

The Olduvai Theory is an hypothesis put forward by Richard Duncan and revolves around the importance of electricity to civilisation.

You can read more about the Olduvai Theory from the website (http://dieoff.org/page125.htm) and a recent review of the theory in the Oil Drum.

The theory is a proposed way of measuring industrial civilisation by a single ratio - world annual energy use to population. The important idea is that, unlike previous civilisations which have risen and fallen to be replaced by others, industrial civilisation would be the last because we would have used up all the easily obtainable resources (oil, coal, minerals) which are necessary for a civilisation to form.

The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilisation is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930–2030.

World energy production per capita from 1945 to 1973 grew at a breakneck speed of 3.45%/year. Next from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979, it slowed to a sluggish 0.64%/year. Then suddenly – and for the first time in history - energy production per capita took a long-term decline of 0.33%/year from 1979 to 1999. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. More to the point, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilisation a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.

The chart above is a graphic showing energy usage/population as a curve with various key points defined. These are:

Note 1: (1930) the beginning of Industrial Civilisation
Note 2: (1979) all time peak of world energy production per capita
Note 3: (1999) the end of cheap oil
Note 4: (2000) eruption of violence in the Middle East
Note 5: (2006) all-time peak in world oil production
Note 6: (2008) OPEC crossover when more than 50% of oil comes from the OPEC nations
Note 7: (2012) permanent blackouts spread worldwide
Note 8: (2030) world energy production falls to 1930 level

The future dates may vary but it is easy to see how, with the knowledge we have of peak oil, the world could slip into a Medieval or even Stone Age scenario. Even a Dark Ages world would be difficult to sustain with no coal and little wood to burn. We are so dependent on energy that, unless we find some alternatives to hydrocarbon energy generation pretty quickly, we will find ourselves without the time or energy to switch.