Where does “Wolf at the Door” come from?

I chose the name "Wolf at the Door" for my site because of a phrase that occurred in the BBC Money Programme "The Last Oil Shock". In it, Richard Hardman, vice-president for exploration for American oil producers Amerada Hess, is talking about oil predications and says "People have cried wolf in the past many times. I believe that this time the wolf really is at the door."

But where does that phrase come from?

The most common basis for the phrase "the wolf at the door" is from one of Aesop's fables. This is described below as translated by George Fyler Townsend and found on The Internet Classics Archive.

The Shepherd's Boy and the Wolf

A Shepherd-boy, who watched a flock of sheep near a village, brought out the villagers three or four times by crying out, "Wolf! Wolf!" and when his neighbours came to help him, laughed at them for their pains. The Wolf, however, did truly come at last. The Shepherd-boy, now really alarmed, shouted in an agony of terror: "Pray, do come and help me; the Wolf is killing the sheep"; but no one paid any heed to his cries, nor rendered any assistance. The Wolf, having no cause of fear, at his leisure lacerated or destroyed the whole flock.

The moral is that there is no believing a liar, even when he speaks the truth.

This story does not match the phrase as I intend it for the early forecasters of oil decline did not deliberately lie but were trying to warn others of the danger and were not believed, rather like Cassandra. There are other versions of Aesop's story which cast the shepherd boy in a better light.

In one, the shepherd boy warns the villagers twice but, the first time, the wolf has gone before they arrive. The second time, he was mistaken so, again, there is no wolf. The third time, the wolf really is there and the villagers ignore him. Subsequently they find the sheep flocks slaughtered.

The moral of this story could be that just because it seems that someone was wrong in the past, it doesn't mean they always will be.

As far as oil is concerned, read the section on past predictions on the Production page and you will see that there were many people that genuinely saw the coming of the wolf years ago.

By the way, the wolf comes out of these stories in a very bad light. In reality, they are not really the savage beasts they appear. Rather more dangerous is the "human at the door". To see more about the real wolf, visit somewhere like the UK Wolf Conservation Trust.