Sustainability example

As an example of how we could apply the principles of sustainability to a real location, and to see what the future of civilisation may be, I examine a real place and see how it might adapt. I use South Devon in England for several reasons such as the fact that it is in a good position to adapt, and that I grew up there so I know it well.

South Devon Now

South Devon (known locally as the South Hams) has several advantages when it comes to adapting to a post-oil world. It is compact and fairly isolated (some distance from most of England, and surrounded by the sea and the moorland of Dartmoor); it has a low population; much of it is presently good quality farmland and it has good sea links (well-sheltered harbours and good fishing grounds).

As can be seen from the present-day map below, it has two main areas of population on either side of thinly populated farmland. Plymouth has a population of 246,000 while Torbay (comprising Torquay, Paignton and Brixham) has a population of 133,000. The other urban areas are fairly small (Kingsbridge 5,500, Ivybridge 12,500, Totnes 8,000, for instance). The distance from west to east on the map is about 55 km and north to west 40  km so it is not a huge distance to control.

Transport links are reasonable. There is a railway line crossing the area west to east and several rivers running southwards which could supplement the existing road system. In the future we can expect modern roads to deteriorate quickly as the materials (tar and diesel) and the heavy machinery to maintain them become expensive so rivers will become major transportation arteries again. South Devon also has several well sheltered harbours such as Plymouth, Salcombe, Dartmouth and Torbay which will not only protect local fishing fleets but provide a stopping off point for other areas' fleets (and travellers) with their custom.

The biggest threat to South Devon would be refugees, both from the main urban areas of Plymouth and Torbay, and from further afield. But the central area of the region is rural and could do with a major town so many of these could migrate to somewhere such as Kingsbridge or South Brent and build these up into market towns for that area. Both Plymouth and Torbay would shrink and split into smaller units, as they used to be a century or so ago.

As for external refugees, the nearest major areas of population outside of Devon are Bristol (410,000 population) and Bournemouth (160,000), both about 150 km from Newton Abbot. It is virtually impossible to stop people entering an area (apart from an island) but, with its limited road and rail access, blocks could be put on these to discourage most people. Certain people with useful talents could be allowed in.

South Devon in the Future

Below is a map of how a sustainable South Devon could be organised. The major urban areas of Plymouth and Torbay have shrunk (the exact shape is not meant to be accurate) to form two main towns as defined by the Central Place Theory. Although they appear solid masses in the map, they would be composed of separate districts interspaced with farming land. Here would be the South Hams government, principal emergency services, industries such as shipbuilding, hospitals. Most people elsewhere would rarely visit these towns, mainly for a specific need or a once-a-year trip to see friends, relatives or maybe a festival.

Below the main towns in status would be the market towns. These would be set roughly 10-15 km apart and act as a hub for the surrounding villages and farms. (The approximate watersheds for each market town are shown by grey lines.) People would visit them once a fortnight or month to sell their goods and buy necessities at the market. The market towns would also have services unavailable at villages (government, doctors, vets, clothing manufacturers, glassmakers, etc).

What is not shown on the map are the multitude of villages, hamlets and isolated farms that dot the spaces between the large villages and towns. With roads deteriorating to mud tracks or being dug up for agriculture, travel will decline to short and necessary journeys only. Railways may still connect some communities but they will use precious energy and will be priced beyond ordinary use. The days of commuting and weekend breaks in the city will be gone forever.